Knesset Election, 27 October 2026
🇮🇱 Israel: 120 seats
Majority 61. Forecast published 18 August 2026, 70 days before voting.
3/3Bloc totals exact
7/11Parties exact
2,400People surveyed
🇮🇱 Israel Knesset Election, 27 October 2026
Israel Election 2026: our prediction vs the actual result
3 months of research. Published 70 days before voting. All 3 parliamentary bloc totals matched the final count exactly.
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Read the Israel result in {year}, alongside elections in {country}.
Knesset: 120 seats
3 of 3Bloc totals matched exactly
7 of 11Party seat predictions matched exactly
4Seats total difference across all 11 parties
0.36Average difference per party (seats)
1.5Turnout difference (percentage points)
YesHung Knesset (no bloc reaching 61) correctly expected
Every seat, party by party
Click any seat to see its party, bloc, our prediction and the actual result. Seats are grouped by bloc.
Seats needed for a majority: 61.
Party results: our prediction vs actual seats
Forecast published on 18 August 2026 and kept unchanged. Final count reported 29 October 2026.
Bloc totals against the 61-seat majority
Neither main bloc reached 61 seats, exactly as forecast. The Netanyahu-led bloc finished 8 short; the Eisenkot-led bloc 13 short.
Voter turnout
About 5.72 million votes were cast.
Map of Israel
Israel elects all 120 members in 1 nationwide constituency, so every district's votes count toward the same seats. Click a district for its main cities.
District outlines: Natural Earth administrative districts, shown for reference only and not a statement on any boundary. District-level vote counts from the Central Elections Committee are added from the Control Centre.
How we ran the 3-month survey
18 May to 18 August 2026, by the Moris Media political research team in the 🇦🇪 UAE.
1. Voter survey: 2,400 eligible voters
3 ways to take part, so the survey reached people beyond those who answer online: online questionnaires, telephone interviews and in-person questionnaires, in Hebrew, Arabic and English.
2. Public digital discussion: 45,000 records
Public posts and comments about parties, issues and the campaign were studied separately from the voter survey. A record is not a person and is never counted as a vote.
From research to result, in 7 stages
Public political conversation
45,000 digital records studied to understand what people discussed.
Direct voter participation
2,400 eligible voters answered through 3 channels in 3 languages.
Voting preferences
Party choices turned into estimated vote shares for the 11 parties expected to enter the Knesset.
Seat estimates
Vote shares converted into 120 seats under the 3.25% threshold and surplus-vote agreements.
Coalition check
Seats grouped into 3 blocs and tested against the 61-seat majority.
Publication
Forecast released on 18 August 2026, 70 days before election day.
Comparison with the result
Predictions placed beside the final count after the 27 October vote.
Timeline
| 18 May 2026 | Research started: voter survey and digital analysis |
| 18 August 2026 | Prediction published: party seats, bloc totals, turnout and hung-Knesset assessment |
| 27 October 2026 | Election day for the 26th Knesset |
| 29 October 2026 | Final count reported; prediction compared with the result |
| 30 October 2026 | Accuracy assessment updated: 7 exact party matches, 4 one-seat differences, 3 exact bloc totals |
Research note: research figures are Moris Media's reported methodology and have not been independently audited. Accuracy figures compare the original forecast with seat allocations reported on 29 and 30 October 2026.
Earlier Israeli elections
Certified Knesset results. Moris Poll Pulse did not run surveys for these elections; 2026 is our first Israeli forecast.