Who Will Control Congress?
Illustrative scenarioAll 435 House seats and 35 Senate contests are on the ballot. Follow the story from the 2024 result to the MPP projection, with every assumption one click away.
Following America's vote from {city}?
Explained for readers in {country}, {year}.
House and Senate at a Glance.
Current composition, MPP projection and certified result, never mixed.
How the Seats Move.
Majority lines, net change and the path from today to the projection.
House seat bar
Democrats
Republicans218 majoritySeat movement
Senate seat bar
The National Mood.
MPP's national ballot estimate: which party Americans would vote for.
54.4%Democrats45.6%RepublicansTwo-party equivalent of the MPP national estimate, excluding undecided voters.
What the national lead means
- In 2018 a 7.3-point national lead brought a 41-seat House gain. Today's lead is larger.
- Moving every 2024 district result 10.5 points towards Democrats reproduces the 240-seat projection.
- The Senate depends on individual states, so a national lead does not guarantee control.
Where the Contests Are.
Senate states are coloured by MPP call; House districts by modelled rating.
Every Senate Contest, Candidate by Candidate.
Tap Why? on any race for the reasoning behind the MPP call.
MPP Race Results Explorer.
Every MPP call in one searchable table.
| Race ID | State | Contest | MPP call | Lead | Confidence | Respondents | Updated |
|---|
What Is Driving the Vote?
Shown only with measured data and sample sizes.
How MPP Built This Projection.
Every input, every step, every check.
Research steps
Method details
Sources
The questionnaire: 22 questions
Online Conversation, Kept Separate.
Social posts are not voters and never enter the vote-share figures.
Majority Calculator.
Change the assumptions and watch control move.
House: national swing
Senate: flip the battlegrounds
Download, Check and Cite.
Forecast archive
Version , timestamped . Original figures stay on record.
Corrections ledger
No corrections recorded. Any change will be listed here with its date and reason.
Editorial & Corrections Policy
Data export
Export the poll explorer as CSV with sources. The full PDF report is added when published.
Prediction Versus Actual.
Certified results appear here, beside the original projection.
Awaiting certified results
Counting begins after polls close on 3 November 2026. Unofficial returns and certified results will be labelled separately and compared seat by seat with this projection.
Make Your Voice Count.
Ask. Listen. Measure.
Join the Pulse Panel to take part in future Moris Poll Pulse surveys, or contact us to commission research.
Now planning {year} studies for organisations in {country}.
MORIS POLL PULSE | Ask. Listen. Measure.