North CarolinaDemocratic gain
Roy Cooper (D) vs Michael Whatley (R)
Held now: Republican (open seat)
Cooper ahead by about 11 points.
🇺🇸 US MIDTERMS 2026 | FINAL PROJECTION
Democrats Projected to Take the House. Senate Leans Democratic.
435 House seats. 35 Senate contests. One national mood.
Published 3 November 2026 · Election day · Data current at publication
Americans vote on Tuesday, 3 November 2026. Our final pre-count projection puts Democrats near 240 House seats and at 51 to 52 Senate seats, with the Senate far closer than the House.
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+8.7
Democratic lead
Average national "which party will you vote for" lead across 4 poll trackers.
26–28
Projected House gain
From about 213 Democratic seats today to about 240.
4
Senate gains needed
Democrats start at 47 and need 51 for control.
9
Battleground Senate races
Called one by one below, with the reason for each call.
9 Stages From Question to Published Projection.
Every number on this page can be traced to a step below.
This projection combines published national polling, certified 2024 results for all 435 districts, the 2018 precedent, independent forecast models and race-by-race Senate polling. The Moris Poll Pulse research desk reviewed each input, built the district model and checked every total before publication on 3 November 2026.
01
Define the question
Which party controls the House (218 of 435) and the Senate (51 of 100) after 3 November 2026, and by how many seats.
02
Collect national polling
We estimated the national "which party will you vote for" lead from published polling averages: D +8.7.
03
Set the baseline
Current House: about 222 Republicans to 213 Democrats. District baseline: certified 2024 results from each state's election office for all 435 districts. Nationally, Republicans won the 2024 two-party House vote by about 3.0 points.
04
Check against history
In 2018 Democrats led the national ballot by 7.3 points on the eve of the vote and gained 41 seats. Today's lead is larger, so a 26 to 28 seat gain sits in the middle of the plausible range.
05
Cross-check forecast models
Independent forecast models place Democrats between about 236 and 240 seats. Our range of 239 to 241 is consistent with them.
06
Build the district model
We moved every district's 2024 two-party margin 10.5 points towards Democrats, the uniform swing that reproduces the 240-seat national estimate. Each district is then rated by its projected margin: Safe (15+), Likely (7 to 15), Lean (3 to 7) and Toss-up (under 3).
07
Review Senate races one by one
For the 9 battleground contests we reviewed the latest statewide race evidence and, where polling was thin, late market signals. The other 26 contests are projected to stay with the party that holds them.
08
Quality checks
Every total was checked: House seats add to 435, Senate seats to 100, majority lines at 218 and 51, and each district's rating matches its projected margin.
09
Publish with a date
Published on election day, 3 November 2026, before polls close. These figures will not be changed: certified results will be placed beside them seat by seat.
A National Lead of 8.7 Points.
From the national ballot to every region.
National ballot, two-party equivalent
D +8.7national lead
Democrats 54.4%Republicans 45.6%
Two-party equivalent of the 8.7-point average lead, excluding undecided and other candidates.
MPP national estimate
Swing since 2024
2024 House vote
2026 projection
From R +3.0 in 2024 to D +8.7 now: an 11.7-point national swing.
By region: projected seats and average projected vote share
A 26 to 28 Seat Swing to Democrats.
435 seats. 218 for a majority.
Democrats ~240Republicans ~195Majority 218
| Now (approx.) | Projected | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats | ~213 | ~239–241 | gain of about 26–28 |
| Republicans | ~222 | ~194–196 | loss of about 26–28 |
| Total | 435 | 435 |
The swing in one view
Now
Projected
The dashed line marks 218. Democrats would clear it by about 22 seats: 240 + 195 = 435.
How the House projection was built
- 01
Starting point
Republicans hold a slim majority of roughly 222 to 213. Vacancies move the count slightly.
- 02
National mood
Democrats lead the national ballot by about 8.7 points, the MPP estimate from published polling averages.
- 03
History
In 2018 Democrats led by 7.3 points on the eve of the vote and gained 41 seats. A larger lead today makes 26 to 28 a mid-range estimate.
- 04
Forecast models
Independent models range from about 236 to 240 seats. We took the middle range, 239 to 241.
- 05
Check
240 + 195 = 435. The House figure is a national estimate, not a district-by-district count of all 435 seats.
All 435 Districts, Rated.
Every square is 1 district. Click any square or state for the detail.
Squares sit inside their state in district order; they show the projected rating, not exact district borders.
State by state
| State | Seats | 2024 result | Projected 2026 | Change | Split |
|---|
District estimates use 2024 district lines. States that redrew their maps for 2026 should be read as indicative at district level; the national total is unaffected.
Every Senate Seat on the Ballot.
33 regular contests plus special elections in Ohio and Florida.
65 seats are not up this year: 34 held by Democrats and 31 by Republicans.
Four Gains Win It. Kansas Makes It 52.
100 seats. 35 contested. 51 for control.
Starting point: Republicans 53, Democrats 47 (independents who vote with Democrats are counted as Democrats).
Democrats 51–52Republicans 47–48Nebraska independent (toss-up)
The arithmetic, one seat at a time
47Democrats
53Republicans
Today: Republicans 53, Democrats 47.
Battleground map
Democratic gainDemocratic holdLeans DemocraticToss-upLeans Republican hold
Race by race
MaineDemocratic gain
Troy Jackson (D) vs Susan Collins (R)
Held now: Republican
Jackson ahead by 2 to 7 points in most polls.
OhioDemocratic gain
Sherrod Brown (D) vs Jon Husted (R)
Held now: Republican
Brown ahead in nearly every poll since early October.
TexasDemocratic gain
James Talarico (D) vs Ken Paxton (R)
Held now: Republican
Ahead by 6 to 7 points in final polling.
KansasLeans Democratic
Adam Hamilton (D) vs Roger Marshall (R)
Held now: Republican
Competitive; late signals give Hamilton a slight edge.
NebraskaToss-up
Dan Osborn (Ind.) vs Pete Ricketts (R)
Held now: Republican
Very few polls published.
South CarolinaLeans Republican hold
Darline Graham (R) vs Annie Andrews (D)
Held now: Republican
Darline Graham, appointed after Senator Lindsey Graham died in July 2026, narrowly ahead.
MichiganDemocratic hold
Abdul El-Sayed (D) vs Mike Rogers (R)
Held now: Democratic (open seat)
El-Sayed ahead by 7 to 11 points in recent polling.
GeorgiaDemocratic hold
Jon Ossoff (D) vs Mike Collins (R)
Held now: Democratic
Democrats must keep this seat to reach 51.
Why Nebraska sits outside the count
If independent Osborn wins, he is not automatically a Democrat; the count depends on which side he works with. If Democrats reach only 50, ties are broken by Vice President JD Vance, a Republican, so 50 seats would not give Democrats control.
Why the Senate is closer than the House
- Democrats must win almost every battleground at the same time.
- Several leads, in Maine and Kansas, are small.
- Losing Michigan would almost certainly cost them the majority.
How Likely Is Each Outcome?
MPP's estimated probabilities for each chamber.
Democrats win the House
84–90%MPP estimate of the chance Democrats win a House majority.
Democrats win the Senate
63–65%MPP estimate; lower than the House because several Senate leads are small.
03 · MICHIGAN
The Race the Majority Hangs On
If Abdul El-Sayed wins Michigan, he becomes the first Muslim elected to the US Senate. Muslims have served in the House, but never in the Senate.
Michigan is also essential to the arithmetic: without it, Democrats would need another Republican-held seat elsewhere to reach 51.
El-Sayed ahead by 7 to 11 points in recent polling.
04 · IN SHORT
| Chamber | Projection | Chance | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| House | D ~240 vs R ~195 | 84–90% | National lead of 8.7, the 2018 precedent, forecast models |
| Senate | D 51–52 vs R 47–48 | 63–65% | 4 gains plus Kansas, holding Michigan and Georgia |
How This Projection Was Made.
Show the method. State the limits.
What it is
A seat projection built from published national polling averages, the 2018 precedent, independent forecast models and race-by-race Senate polls, reviewed by the Moris Poll Pulse research desk.
What it is not
It is not a Moris Poll Pulse fieldwork survey of US voters and it is not a district-by-district count of all 435 House seats. It is an estimate, not an official result.
Published
3 November 2026, before polls close. The original figures stay on this page and will be compared with the certified results once counting is complete.
Inputs: published national polling averages, statewide race polling, independent forecast models, market signals for thinly polled races and certified 2024 results. Certified 2026 results come only from each state's election authority.
Check Back After the Count.
Before the ballot. After the result.
We will place the certified House and Senate results beside these figures, seat by seat, without changing the original projection.
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MORIS POLL PULSE | Published Election Research & Prediction History Since 2024